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Northern Oil and Gas to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?
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Key Takeaways
NOG to report Q1 on April 28 with estimated EPS of 80 cents and $523.5M in revenues, both down YoY.
Northern Oil and Gas faces weak prices, deferrals, rising costs and wider differentials, squeezing margins.
NOG may see upside from gas output growth, lower well costs, hedging and a 2.6% rise in volumes.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 80 cents per share, and that for revenues is pinned at $523.5 million.
Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced this oil and gas exploration and production company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But first, it is worth taking a look at NOG’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of NOG’s Q4 Earnings
In the last reported quarter, this Minnetonka, MN-based independent energy company’s earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by strong production, with total output beating the consensus mark by 4.2%. It reported adjusted earnings per share of 83 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. However, revenues of $447.7 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $515 million.
The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an average surprise of 29.7%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has witnessed four upward and two downward movements in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 39.9% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a 9.3% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider for NOG’s Q1 Performance
Northern Oil and Gas faces near-term pressure from weak commodity prices and operator-driven activity deferrals, which are already impacting production visibility. Management highlighted a typical first-quarter downtick due to weather, curtailments and lower activity. Rising gas exposure comes with weaker realizations, and widening oil differentials further compress margins. Additionally, ongoing non-cash impairments tied to lower oil prices and higher maintenance costs signal underlying stress, while the uncertain timing of deferred wells and inconsistent operator behavior add volatility to near-term earnings outcomes. The increase in NOG’s costs might have dented its to-be-reported bottom line. According to our model prediction, the company’s first-quarter total operating expenses are likely to total $636.2 million, which is up 70.6% from the year-ago quarter’s level.
Despite headwinds, strong gas production growth, lower well costs and high-grading of drilling locations could support upside. Front-loaded capital deployment and ground game success may drive better-than-expected volumes, while hedging and cost discipline help sustain margins, positioning the company for a potential earnings beat. According to our model, NOG's total average daily production volume is expected to increase 2.6% year over year, reaching 138.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d).
What Does Our Model Predict for NOG?
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Northern Oil and Gas this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
NOG currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some firms from the other space that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
ARC Resources is engaged in the exploration, acquisition and development of oil and natural gas properties in western Canada. AETUF’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, beat the same in two and were in line in one of the quarters, delivering an average surprise of 2.2%.
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 28.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s 2026 EPS indicates 7.5% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $79.8 billion, EPD’s shares have gained 21.3% in a year.
Antero Resources Corporation (AR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.46% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 29.
Antero Resources is an independent exploration and production company focused on the development of natural gas, NGLs and oil resources primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS indicates 137.4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $11.3 billion, AR’s shares have risen 13.3% in a year.
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Northern Oil and Gas to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?
Key Takeaways
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 80 cents per share, and that for revenues is pinned at $523.5 million.
Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced this oil and gas exploration and production company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But first, it is worth taking a look at NOG’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of NOG’s Q4 Earnings
In the last reported quarter, this Minnetonka, MN-based independent energy company’s earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by strong production, with total output beating the consensus mark by 4.2%. It reported adjusted earnings per share of 83 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. However, revenues of $447.7 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $515 million.
The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an average surprise of 29.7%.
This is depicted in the graph below:
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Quote
NOG’s Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has witnessed four upward and two downward movements in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 39.9% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a 9.3% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider for NOG’s Q1 Performance
Northern Oil and Gas faces near-term pressure from weak commodity prices and operator-driven activity deferrals, which are already impacting production visibility. Management highlighted a typical first-quarter downtick due to weather, curtailments and lower activity. Rising gas exposure comes with weaker realizations, and widening oil differentials further compress margins. Additionally, ongoing non-cash impairments tied to lower oil prices and higher maintenance costs signal underlying stress, while the uncertain timing of deferred wells and inconsistent operator behavior add volatility to near-term earnings outcomes. The increase in NOG’s costs might have dented its to-be-reported bottom line. According to our model prediction, the company’s first-quarter total operating expenses are likely to total $636.2 million, which is up 70.6% from the year-ago quarter’s level.
Despite headwinds, strong gas production growth, lower well costs and high-grading of drilling locations could support upside. Front-loaded capital deployment and ground game success may drive better-than-expected volumes, while hedging and cost discipline help sustain margins, positioning the company for a potential earnings beat. According to our model, NOG's total average daily production volume is expected to increase 2.6% year over year, reaching 138.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d).
What Does Our Model Predict for NOG?
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Northern Oil and Gas this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
NOG currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some firms from the other space that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
ARC Resources Ltd. (AETUF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.55% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 28. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ARC Resources is engaged in the exploration, acquisition and development of oil and natural gas properties in western Canada. AETUF’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, beat the same in two and were in line in one of the quarters, delivering an average surprise of 2.2%.
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 28.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s 2026 EPS indicates 7.5% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $79.8 billion, EPD’s shares have gained 21.3% in a year.
Antero Resources Corporation (AR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.46% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 29.
Antero Resources is an independent exploration and production company focused on the development of natural gas, NGLs and oil resources primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS indicates 137.4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $11.3 billion, AR’s shares have risen 13.3% in a year.